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Currency · AUD

Australian dollar

What the news says about the Australian dollar, and where its rates, macro data, CFTC positioning and strength against the other 7 currencies stand, each reading against its own history.

News tone (24 h)

+0.56

Positive tone

High confidence

Declared by the AI and not yet calibrated.

Based on 3 stories: 0 negative, 0 neutral and 3 positive.

See the news ↓

It is an average weighted by each story’s importance and the AI’s confidence, so it may not match the count. Updated 3 hours ago

How reliable is it? →How it is calculated

Pohuant publishes general, descriptive information. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Trading in the markets involves a risk of loss.

Readings by factor

Where each official series stands against its own history. These are not forecasts.

Relative strength

  • Performance against the other 7 currencies, 20 sessions (ECB rates)

    1.17 %

    Percentile 78 of 5 years · High

    +1.59 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026

    Source: ECB (ECB Data Portal). Evidence: No predictive evidence: studies fx_cross_sectional_reversal:v1 and csfx_momentum_review:v1 inconclusive.

  • Performance against the other 7 currencies, 60 sessions (ECB rates)

    1.52 %

    Percentile 68 of 5 years · Usual

    +0.42 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026

    Source: ECB (ECB Data Portal). Evidence: No predictive evidence: studies fx_cross_sectional_reversal:v1 and csfx_momentum_review:v1 inconclusive.

Macro

  • Macro momentum: official indicators against their trend (−1 to 1)

    -0.24 index

    Percentile 11 of 5 years · Low

    +0.02 index over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026

    Sources: BLS, BEA, Census, Fed, Eurostat, ONS, StatCan, e-Stat, FSO, OECD. Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ +0.01).

CFTC positioning

  • Asset managers' net position in CME futures (% of open interest)

    -38.7 %

    Percentile 16 of 3 years · Low

    -4.5 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026

    Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Evidence: Pre-registered review cftc_flows_review:v1 rejected.

  • Leveraged funds' net position in CME futures (% of open interest)

    15.8 %

    Percentile 83 of 3 years · High

    +0.9 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026

    Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Evidence: Pre-registered review cftc_flows_review:v1 rejected.

Rates and curves

  • Central bank policy rate

    4.6 %

    Percentile 100 of 5 years · Very high

    +25 bp over 3 months · Data as of Oct 15, 2026

    Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ 0); carry study fx_carry_spot:v1 inconclusive.

  • 10-year bond (monthly average)

    5.28 %

    Percentile 100 of 5 years · Very high

    +26.8 bp over 1 month · Data as of Sep 1, 2026

    Source: OECD (CC BY 4.0) via FRED. Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ 0); carry study fx_carry_spot:v1 inconclusive.

Valuation

  • Real effective exchange rate against its 10-year trend

    8.7 %

    Percentile 88 of 15 years · High

    +0.8 pp over 1 month · Data as of Sep 30, 2026

    Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Evidence: Pre-registered review reer_valuation_review:v1 rejected.

Australian dollar pairs

Recent news

Headline and link to the original outlet, with our own summary and the tone for this page.