Currency pair

EUR/USD

The relative news tone between the euro and the US dollar, and the official readings of both currencies side by side, without combining them.

Relative news tone (24 h)

-0.16

The tone of EUR is more negative than that of USD

−10+1

Low confidence

Declared by the AI and not yet calibrated.

Euro: Based on 13 stories: 4 negative, 0 neutral and 9 positive.US dollar: Based on 64 stories: 10 negative, 3 neutral and 51 positive.

See the news ↓

It is half the difference between the tone of EUR and that of USD. Updated 36 minutes ago

How reliable is it? →How it is calculated

Pohuant publishes general, descriptive information. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Trading in the markets involves a risk of loss.

Readings by factor

Where each official series stands against its own history. These are not forecasts.

Euro (EUR)

Relative strength

Performance against the other 7 currencies, 20 sessions (ECB rates)
-2.15 %
Percentile 3 of 5 years · Very low
-0.49 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026
Performance against the other 7 currencies, 60 sessions (ECB rates)
-2.42 %
Percentile 6 of 5 years · Very low
-0.51 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026

Macro

Macro momentum: official indicators against their trend (−1 to 1)
0.19 index
Percentile 89 of 5 years · High
+0.09 index over 1 week · Data as of Oct 21, 2026

CFTC positioning

Asset managers' net position in CME futures (% of open interest)
21.7 %
Percentile 1 of 3 years · Very low
-1.2 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026
Leveraged funds' net position in CME futures (% of open interest)
-7.8 %
Percentile 1 of 3 years · Very low
-0.1 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026

Rates and curves

Central bank policy rate
2.5 %
Percentile 59 of 5 years · Usual
+25 bp over 3 months · Data as of Oct 20, 2026
10-year bond
3.37 %
Percentile 97 of 5 years · Very high
-6.9 bp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 27, 2026
2-year bond
3.02 %
Percentile 91 of 5 years · Very high
-1.3 bp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 27, 2026

Valuation

Real effective exchange rate against its 10-year trend
3 %
Percentile 92 of 15 years · Very high
+0.6 pp over 1 month · Data as of Sep 30, 2026

US dollar (USD)

Relative strength

Performance against the other 7 currencies, 20 sessions (ECB rates)
0.11 %
Percentile 49 of 5 years · Usual
-0.02 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026
Performance against the other 7 currencies, 60 sessions (ECB rates)
1.83 %
Percentile 71 of 5 years · High
+2.26 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026

Macro

Macro momentum: official indicators against their trend (−1 to 1)
0.04 index
Percentile 58 of 5 years · Usual
+0.13 index over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026

Rates and curves

Central bank policy rate
3.88 %
Percentile 43 of 5 years · Usual
+25 bp over 3 months · Data as of Oct 20, 2026
10-year bond
4.99 %
Percentile 98 of 5 years · Very high
-13 bp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 27, 2026
2-year bond
4.7 %
Percentile 83 of 5 years · High
-9 bp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 27, 2026

Valuation

Real effective exchange rate against its 10-year trend
4.4 %
Percentile 25 of 15 years · Low
-1.2 pp over 1 month · Data as of Sep 30, 2026

USD positioning is not directly observed in CFTC data; it is not shown.

Recent news

Headline and link to the original outlet, with our own summary and the tone for this page.

Bloomberg - Markets · 27 minutes ago
ECB Expected to Keep Rates on Hold
Subscription outlet: headline and link only.
- Euro: positive tone
OilPrice.com · 37 minutes ago
EU Scrambles to Contain Energy Price Crisis Ahead of Winter
EU energy ministers are meeting to address a worsening energy price crisis before winter, after refinery closures pushed diesel prices to record highs and gas hit 100 euros per MWh.
- Euro: negative tone
WSJ - Markets Main · 40 minutes ago
U.S. Treasury Yields Fall as Investors Digest Fed Meet, Focus Shifts to ECB
Subscription outlet: headline and link only.
- Euro: positive tone
- US dollar: negative tone
Le Monde EN - Economy · 1 hour ago
European Central Bank meets as France's deteriorating public finances continue to drive questions
The ECB meets as France's worsening public finances raise questions; most expect rates to stay unchanged after two increases this year, with President Lagarde speaking in Bangkok on October 14, 2026.
- Euro: positive tone
Bloomberg - Economics · 1 hour ago
France Debt Crisis: How Does It Compare With Greece?
Subscription outlet: headline and link only.
- Euro: negative tone
investingLive (ex-ForexLive) · 2 hours ago
Economic data spotlight: Fed rate hike bets survived Warsh, but can they survive US PCE inflation?
Markets still largely expect a quarter-point Fed rate increase in December after Chair Warsh pointed to economic data as the guide. Attention now turns to the US PCE inflation report, with core readings seen as the key gauge.
- US dollar: positive tone
investingLive (ex-ForexLive) · 3 hours ago
Much ado about nothing? Fed chair Warsh talks up a storm but December rate hike bets barely budge
Fed Chair Warsh spoke at length, but market pricing for a December rate increase barely moved, slipping only slightly to about 82% odds from 88%. The Fed also nudged up its view of economic growth.
- US dollar: positive tone
Bloomberg - Economics · 3 hours ago
ECB Set to Hold Rates to Assess France and Energy Risks
Subscription outlet: headline and link only.
- Euro: positive tone
investingLive (ex-ForexLive) · 5 hours ago
investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: Oil eases on Vance’s Iran outreach
A batch of Asia-Pacific market updates: oil slipped after reports of a Vance letter to Iran aimed at restarting talks, and gold stayed above $4,000.
- US dollar: positive tone
investingLive (ex-ForexLive) · 7 hours ago
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7147 (vs. estimate at 6.6596)
The People's Bank of China set the yuan's daily reference rate at 6.7147 per dollar, stronger than the 6.6596 estimate and the strongest fixing since February 2023. The central bank also injected 115 billion yuan on a net basis through reverse repurchase operations.
- US dollar: negative tone
WSJ - Markets Main · 7 hours ago
The Fed’s AI Puzzle: Will High Rates Slow the Boom?
Subscription outlet: headline and link only.
- US dollar: positive tone
WSJ - Markets Main · 7 hours ago
Gold Falls as Traders Mull Fed Decision
Subscription outlet: headline and link only.
- US dollar: positive tone
investingLive (ex-ForexLive) · 8 hours ago
The view from China: CITIC Securities still sees a 25bp Fed hike in December
CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, with the terminal rate staying near current levels. The brokerage also sees no clear de-escalation between the US and Iran, keeping oil's risk premium intact.
- US dollar: positive tone
Bloomberg - Markets · 8 hours ago
Gold Edges Lower After Fed Holds Rates With Limited Guidance
Subscription outlet: headline and link only.
- US dollar: positive tone
Japan Times · 9 hours ago
Fed holds fire as Warsh telegraphs more hikes without saying it
The Fed kept rates unchanged, and Chair Kevin Warsh pointed to a solid economy and stubborn inflation, hinting that further rate increases remain possible.
- US dollar: positive tone
Bloomberg - Economics · 9 hours ago
Fed Holds Fire as Warsh Telegraphs More Hikes Without Saying It
Subscription outlet: headline and link only.
- US dollar: positive tone
investingLive (ex-ForexLive) · 9 hours ago
Gold heads for its biggest yearly drop in 11 years as the Iran war lifts yields and the dollar
Gold is on track for its largest annual decline in eleven years, pressured by war-driven oil gains that pushed yields and the dollar higher. Analysts say easing oil prices or US-Iran talks would remove a key headwind.
- US dollar: positive tone
Meduza · 10 hours ago
Kremlin says U.S.-Russia-Ukraine peace talks will take place in Abu Dhabi after November 4, depending on battlefield conditions
The Kremlin said trilateral talks among the US, Russia and Ukraine will be held in Abu Dhabi after November 4, with timing tied to battlefield conditions. Zelensky mentioned November 10 as a possible date.
- Euro: positive tone
Bloomberg - Markets · 10 hours ago
US Stock Futures Decline, Fed Keeps Rates Steady: Markets Wrap
Subscription outlet: headline and link only.
- US dollar: positive tone
investingLive (ex-ForexLive) · 10 hours ago
Recap: Fed holds at 3.75%-4% in 10-2 vote as Cook dissents for a hike, December move in focus
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.75%-4% in a 10-2 vote. Two officials dissented in favor of a hike, and Chair Warsh did not push back on market expectations of a December increase.
- US dollar: positive tone

Relative news tone (24 h)

Readings by factor

Euro (EUR)

Relative strength

Macro

CFTC positioning

Rates and curves

Valuation

US dollar (USD)

Relative strength

Macro

Rates and curves

Valuation

Recent news

Other pairs