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Currency · NZD

New Zealand dollar

What the news says about the New Zealand dollar, and where its rates, macro data, CFTC positioning and strength against the other 7 currencies stand, each reading against its own history.

News tone (24 h)

+0.09

Positive tone

Medium confidence

Declared by the AI and not yet calibrated.

Based on 7 stories: 3 negative, 0 neutral and 4 positive.

See the news ↓

It is an average weighted by each story’s importance and the AI’s confidence, so it may not match the count. Updated 3 hours ago

How reliable is it? →How it is calculated

Pohuant publishes general, descriptive information. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Trading in the markets involves a risk of loss.

Readings by factor

Where each official series stands against its own history. These are not forecasts.

Relative strength

  • Performance against the other 7 currencies, 20 sessions (ECB rates)

    -0.54 %

    Percentile 43 of 5 years · Usual

    -0.68 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026

    Source: ECB (ECB Data Portal). Evidence: No predictive evidence: studies fx_cross_sectional_reversal:v1 and csfx_momentum_review:v1 inconclusive.

  • Performance against the other 7 currencies, 60 sessions (ECB rates)

    -3.3 %

    Percentile 10 of 5 years · Very low

    -1.24 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026

    Source: ECB (ECB Data Portal). Evidence: No predictive evidence: studies fx_cross_sectional_reversal:v1 and csfx_momentum_review:v1 inconclusive.

Macro

  • Macro momentum: official indicators against their trend (−1 to 1)

    0.02 index

    Percentile 51 of 5 years · Usual

    -0.13 index over 1 week · Data as of Oct 27, 2026

    Sources: BLS, BEA, Census, Fed, Eurostat, ONS, StatCan, e-Stat, FSO, OECD. Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ +0.01).

CFTC positioning

  • Asset managers' net position in CME futures (% of open interest)

    -37.5 %

    Percentile 45 of 3 years · Usual

    -2.3 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026

    Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Evidence: Pre-registered review cftc_flows_review:v1 rejected.

  • Leveraged funds' net position in CME futures (% of open interest)

    -14.7 %

    Percentile 29 of 3 years · Low

    -5.4 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026

    Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Evidence: Pre-registered review cftc_flows_review:v1 rejected.

Rates and curves

  • Central bank policy rate

    2.75 %

    Percentile 37 of 5 years · Usual

    +25 bp over 3 months · Data as of Oct 16, 2026

    Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ 0); carry study fx_carry_spot:v1 inconclusive.

  • 10-year bond (monthly average)

    4.94 %

    Percentile 95 of 5 years · Very high

    +23 bp over 1 month · Data as of Sep 1, 2026

    Source: OECD (CC BY 4.0) via FRED. Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ 0); carry study fx_carry_spot:v1 inconclusive.

Valuation

  • Real effective exchange rate against its 10-year trend

    -3.7 %

    Percentile 13 of 15 years · Low

    -1.5 pp over 1 month · Data as of Sep 30, 2026

    Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Evidence: Pre-registered review reer_valuation_review:v1 rejected.

New Zealand dollar pairs

Recent news

Headline and link to the original outlet, with our own summary and the tone for this page.